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The Morning Line – Albuquerque Round 3
The Morning Line – Albuquerque Round 3

Chase Outlaw on 913 Monkey:

After day one, this was the highest marked bull here for his 44.75-point out with J.B. Mauney. That’s the only out Monkey has on record, but it’s more than good enough to get Outlaw a round win here if he can stay on.

Marco Eguchi on 567 Lester Gillis:

For a bull that pretty much spins to the left like a top every time they open the gate, Lester Gillis has a shockingly high power rating. He’s 54-5 in his career, and he grades out as a high-end short round bull if you factor in his difficulty. He is always rideable in theory because he has good timing and a set pattern, but in practice there is little room for error on him. Eguchi will have to be perfect here.

Joe Frost on 77B Medicine Man:

Frost hasn’t exactly been in the spotlight this weekend, but he’s sitting third behind Outlaw and Eguchi and has the best draw of the six riders who have two scores. Medicine Man threw Taylor Toves off in Round 1, but he is a great fit for a right-handed rider; he’s 5-8 against them. Frost usually delivers qualified rides on the bulls he is supposed to ride, and this is one of them.

Kaique Pacheco on E5 Big Black Cat:

It’s a little surprising these two haven’t met before. Pacheco and this bull have been to a lot of the same events. Big Black Cat is a good long round draw for anyone. He can be unpredictable, but Pacheco should be able to handle him.

Jose Vitor Leme on C4 Taco Cat:

Leme can ride anything, but this bull will test him. Taco Cat will probably go to the right with some speed and a hitch in his timing. He won’t be easy pickings for Leme.

Eduardo Aparecido on 46C Cha Ching:

Here’s the problem with keeping a low score instead of taking the reride option when the next round has not been drawn yet. Aparecido has four guys ahead of him in the event, so if everything stays the same, he won’t win higher than fourth in the average. Cha Ching is unridden in nine career outs, so he’s legitimately difficult. Aparecido declined his Round 2 option because he had bucked off the RR bull before, so in his mind, also legitimately difficult. By declining the reride he’s betting on three things outside of his control:

1: The guys ahead of him will falter at some point

2: He will draw into a favorable matchup in Round 3, which leads to…

3: He gets a decent pick in the short round and picks a bull he can ride.

If he took the reride he would be betting on one thing that he can control – his ability to ride. Worst case scenario he draws a tough bull in Round 3 (he did) but he gets a free roll at a more rideable bull that could deliver a Round 2 win first. If the object is to win points and money, this is an easy decision. The fact that so many guys have mistaken beliefs about rerides makes me wonder if, instead of a physical training facility in Pueblo, the guys really need a 30-minute math class at every event.

Sometimes it pays to keep the score, and sometimes it pays to take the reride. It is usually a simple calculation. The amount of misinformation circulating about rerides over the past seven or eight years is off the charts. For every reride option, there are at least two bad reride opinions.

Jess Lockwood on 450 Scarface:

Whatever the guys ahead of him do, Lockwood will close the gap on them with a qualified ride here. He’s a bull behind the leaders after bucking off in Round 2, but if he bucks off here it will be a huge upset for the bull. Lockwood was 89.25 on this bull at the World Finals, and Scarface is 3-5 against left-handed riders in his career.

Mason Taylor on 1206 Cut the Cord:

This is a pretty good draw for a guy it’s hard to get a read on. Taylor’s numbers are just OK, but when you watch him, he doesn’t look like an average rider. He either looks clueless or he looks like the next world champ. If he has a world champ kind of day here, he could get back in the running for the event win. I think this is a guy to keep an eye on. If he can get some consistency or just level up some of his bad days, he clearly has the talent to compete at this level.

Cody Jesus on 247 Red Dawn:

This might bring the house down. Red Dawn was outstanding last night with Claudio Montanha, and he went to the left. If he has the same trip here, Jesus is likely to be more than 90 points on him. This is a showy bull with a showy rider who gets the maximum points out of every bull.

Emilio Resende on 3 Stunt Man Ray:

Resende is right-handed, and he has the best bull in the land for a righty. Stunt Man Ray may be the best draw in the business for anyone right now. Chase Outlaw split the first round on him here. Resende bucked off this bull in New York, but not until the 7.4-second mark.

Outlaw, with added motivation, leading Ty Murray Invitational with Eguchi
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